If 25 percent approve violent regime change, GMA could face violent end

11/22/2007
According to a recent poll survey, “25 percent of Filipinos are willing to take drastic measures to oust a president linked to corruption.”That’s a lot of numbers and should be ominous news for this administration which, more than any administration on record, has been linked to corruption. The reason is that while 25 percent unquestionably represent a minority number and on first impression isn’t a minority of consequence, when you couple that with the rest of the population who approve of a regime change of the peaceful variety, then you have something else. And according to the same poll survey, 59 percent want a corruption-linked administration to resign. Meaning, peaceful regime change.

In brief, applying that to this administration, 25 percent approve of drastic means — which presumably includes violence — to accomplish regime change while 59 percent want to see the administration resign.

And that’s an even more ominous number. When you combine the number that approves of violent change with the number that wants peaceful change — but change nonetheless — then it is reasonable to conclude that if moves for a violent change were to take place, such moves might not be approved of by the majority of the population but — repeat, but — that majority just might possibly approve of an accomplished fact, if accomplished fact it does turn out to be.

To illustrate, visualize this hypothetical situation: a coup is staged by a faction of the military positioned to stage such coup successfully. That would represent a violent change of regime. When that happens, do you believe that the 59 percent of the population who believe in a peaceful regime change would object to the coup as an accomplished fact? Chances are they would welcome that accomplished fact, violent as it might have been. And, of course, the 25 percent who believe in violent change would applaud and applaud heartily.

In brief, who would object to the coup? Apparently, only those in this administration’s payroll and/or who profit from its corruption. And that isn’t much.

If you read between the lines of that survey, you would see that it in fact, although unwittingly presumably tells us that coup plotters can get away with it if they only tried hard enough.

That said, take another situation: a hungry mob of some 200,000 march toward Malacañang — as that mob of some 50,000 did during Edsa III chanting “out with GMA.”

First, do you think the Palace guards will put up a resistance? Do you think Esperon will order his people to fire? Fire at 200,000 hungry marchers knowing what the domestic and international repercussions of the mass slaughter will be?

This writer will bet his writing fingers that Esperon himself will take flight. And how do you think the 59 percent who believe in peaceful regime change will react? Condemn the march and the slaughter? Or condemn the mob when it occupies Malacañang and form its own government “of the people?”

Pardon me, but this writer believes that the poll finding was nothing less than an instigation for a violent regime change, no matter what the pollsters might have intended. And if they had intended to convey the impression that there won’t be any violent regime change because “only 25 percent” believe in violent change, then they are simply dead wrong and should review their political science and the history of revolutions.Revolutions aren’t made by people who believe in peaceful change. Revolutions are invariably made by a minority determined to have a regime change at all cost. And when they start it, those who believe in change — peaceful or not — are bound to follow.

GMA should plan for an exit while the exiting is good. That’s what that poll survey is telling her. Twenty-five percent are prepared to see a revolution if only to change the regime. While 59 percent believe that GMA should resign. Put two and two together, and there’s only one conclusion you can draw.

The question is whether the “military patriots” see it that way. Apparently, they don’t. That’s why they have become increasingly irrelevant in spite of their brave words. They are still “studying” the public mood, which is an excuse for their indecision and inaction. And so somebody else will beat them to the draw. And whoever that somebody else will be the national hero.Either that or the mob simply takes over as they almost did in Edsa III.

filresist	Latest page update: made by filresist , Nov 25 2007, 10:37 AM EST (about this update About This Update Edited by filresist view changes - complete history)
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